M&A in 2024 has shown signs of recovery after a challenging period marked by high inflation and geopolitical tensions. With stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, a reopening of financing markets, and renewed boardroom confidence, analysts anticipate a surge in global M&A transactions. Key sectors, including energy, technology, and healthcare, are set to lead this revival.
«The M&A market seems to be entering a phase of cautious optimism.»
Despite a generally optimistic outlook, certain challenges continue to persist. High interest rates, although expected to decrease, along with regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical uncertainties, still present ongoing hurdles. Yet, many M&A professionals expect deal volumes to rise, reflecting an industry adapting to new conditions with a sharpened focus on value creation.
As 2024 draws to a close, the M&A market seems to be entering a phase of cautious optimism fueled by strategic imperatives and growth opportunities across various sectors.
See the biggest M&A deals of 2023 here.
Top 5 biggest M&A deals of 2024
5. Capital One Financial Corporation’s Acquisition of Discover Financial Services
Deal value: $35 billion.
Capital One Financial Corporation announced its intention to acquire Discover Financial Services in an all-stock transaction valued at $35.3 billion.
This merger aims to create a formidable entity in the credit card and consumer banking sectors, combining Capital One’s extensive banking operations with Discover’s robust brand and customer base. The integration will yield significant cost synergies, estimated at $2.7 billion pre-tax, and enhance shareholder value.
By leveraging their complementary strengths, the combined company plans to offer a more comprehensive suite of financial services to a broader customer base, positioning itself competitively against industry leaders.
4. Johnson & Johnson’s Acquisition of Shockwave Medical
Deal value: $17 billion.
Johnson & Johnson (J&J) announced its acquisition of Shockwave Medical, a leader in intravascular lithotripsy (IVL) technology, valued at approximately $13.1 billion.
This strategic move enhances J&J’s cardiovascular portfolio, integrating Shockwave’s innovative solutions for treating calcified arterial lesions. The acquisition aligns with J&J’s efforts to expand in high-growth, innovation-driven segments of cardiovascular intervention, aiming to improve patient outcomes and maintain a competitive edge in the evolving medical device market.
3. Home Depot acquisition of SRS Distribution
Deal value: $18.25 billion.
Home Depot announced its agreement to acquire SRS Distribution, a leading residential specialty trade distribution company, for approximately $18.25 billion. This strategic acquisition not only significantly enhances Home Depot’s capabilities across multiple verticals, such as roofing, landscaping, and pool supplies, but also further expands its offerings to professional contractors.
As a result, Home Depot’s total addressable market has increased by approximately $50 billion, reaching an estimated $1 trillion. This move positions Home Depot to better serve complex project needs and solidifies its standing as a leading specialty trade distributor.
2. Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Acquisition of Juniper Networks
Deal value: $14 billion.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) planned $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks marks a significant move in the tech industry, aiming to enhance HPE’s position in cloud services and advanced computing. This strategic acquisition will double HPE’s networking business, creating a comprehensive portfolio that offers customers and partners a compelling new choice to drive business value.
This acquisition reflects a broader consolidation trend in the tech sector, where companies are expanding their product portfolios and market reach to remain competitive. By integrating Juniper’s AI-driven networking solutions, HPE aims to deliver secure, end-to-end AI-native solutions built on cloud-native architectures, thereby enhancing its offerings in the rapidly evolving tech landscape.
1. ExxonMobil’s acquisition of Pioneer
Deal value: $59.5 billion.
ExxonMobil completed its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $60 billion. This strategic move has not only significantly expanded ExxonMobil’s presence in the Permian Basin but has also more than doubled its footprint in this prolific oil-producing region.
The merger combined Pioneer’s substantial acreage and expertise with ExxonMobil’s technological capabilities and financial strength, creating an industry-leading position in U.S. unconventional oil and gas resources.
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Trends for M&A in 2024 and Predictions for 2025
M&A in 2024: M&A trends and predictions for 2025 analysis
As quarter 4 draws to an end, we have seen how M&A in 2024 rebounded with remarkable growth, marking a pivotal shift after years of economic uncertainty. Stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, increased financing opportunities and a renewed strategic focus by companies across various sectors are fueling this resurgence. Major deals in energy, tech, healthcare, and financial services have underscored a year of transformation and consolidation as businesses seek to strengthen their positions and adapt to evolving market demands.
Looking ahead to 2025, industry experts anticipate this momentum to continue, driven by trends such as increasing cross-border deals, technological integration, and a heightened focus on ESG (environmental, social, and governance) factors.
As the year comes to a close, we are intrigued to provide an overview of the accuracy of the predictions for M&A trends in 2025, as well as see in which sectors continue to lie the largest M&A deals of 2024. We will compare the predictions made by M&A professionals such as PwC, Forbes, and Clifford Chance.
Read the annual predictions below.
M&A in 2024: PwC predictions
1. Resurgence in M&A Activity
After a subdued period, M&A activity has rebounded in 2024. This resurgence is attributed to improved corporate performance, rising executive confidence, and signs of stabilizing inflation. Notably, the total deal value in the first five months of 2024 increased by 30% year-over-year, reaching $535 billion.
2. Influence of High Interest Rates
Although high interest rates remain persistent, dealmaking has nonetheless gained significant momentum. Executives are motivated to innovate and adapt to new technologies, such as generative AI, leading to increased M&A activity. Sectors like technology, media, communications, energy, and financial services are particularly promising for M&A opportunities.
3. Private Equity’s Role
Private equity firms are expected to play a significant role in the M&A market, which is driven by substantial available capital and a growing market for private credit. This trend will contribute to the overall increase in dealmaking activity.
These trends suggest a dynamic M&A environment in 2024, characterized by strategic acquisitions across various industries, with a focus on innovation and adaptation to evolving market conditions.
M&A in 2024: Forbes predictions
1. Increase in Smaller Deals
The publishing industry is seeing more mid-sized publishers struggle with inflation and competition, leading to potential sales. Major players like Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster are expected to be active buyers, focusing on smaller acquisitions to expand their portfolios.
2. Tech Industry Rebounds
M&A activity in the tech sector has risen in comparison to how slow last year was. While regulatory pressures and high interest rates have previously curbed large-scale deals, there is nonetheless a strong demand for smaller acquisitions, especially in high-growth areas like AI and cybersecurity. Tech companies are prioritizing efficiency and competitive positioning through acquisitions, especially as private equity firms hold record levels of capital.
3. Consolidation in Healthcare
Financial distress and labor challenges are pushing more hospitals toward M&A. Larger health systems aim to expand their outpatient and mental health services. For many hospitals, the primary goal is survival. Meanwhile, others are shifting their focus toward scaling and diversifying service offerings through strategic consolidation.
4. Valuations and Financing Challenges
While M&A is predicted to increase, financing remains costly, and valuations are lower than in the recent past. Dealmakers need to create more value to achieve returns similar to the boom years of 2020 and 2021. However, optimism persists, with 81% of M&A professionals predicting an uptick in deal volume within the next year, supported by improved economic confidence.
These trends suggest a year of strategic acquisitions across industries, with smaller deals becoming the focus due to high financing costs and a cautious economic environment.
M&A in 2024: Clifford Chance predictions
1. Energy Transition Driving M&A Activity
Government policies and tax incentives are anticipated to boost investments in clean energy and decarbonization projects. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) have expanded the capital pool for clean energy, attracting foreign investments. Meanwhile, oil majors are increasingly likely to pursue opportunities to access proven reserves, especially in regions such as the U.S., the Middle East, and Central Asia.
2. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Influencing Tech M&A
The rapid advancement of AI technologies is expected to drive significant M&A activity in the tech sector. Companies are likely to pursue acquisitions to integrate AI capabilities and maintain competitiveness. However, the emergence of AI-specific regulations, such as the EU AI Act, may introduce complexities and uncertainties in deal-making.
3. Heightened Antitrust Scrutiny
Regulatory bodies are increasing their scrutiny of potential transactions, necessitating comprehensive global merger control, foreign direct investment (FDI), and EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation strategies. The rise of independent-minded regulators with expanded powers adds unpredictability and risk to the M&A process.
4. Supply Chain Security as a Catalyst for M&A
Companies are expected to engage in vertical acquisitions, strategic alliances, and joint ventures to secure supply chains across various industries, including automotive, retail, e-commerce, and healthcare. Geopolitical factors and the need for supply chain resilience are driving this trend.
5. Private Capital Unblocking Deal Pipelines
Stabilizing interest rates and inflation levels, along with more accessible debt, are anticipated to boost private capital deals. Financial sponsors are set to clear congested pipelines, which will drive an increase in M&A activity. However, with rising debt costs and heightened buyer scrutiny, pressures are likely to build on valuations, return expectations, and deal timelines. Consequently, sellers may need to adapt their strategies to align with shifting market conditions.
Final predictions for M&A in 2025
Based on current trends, the M&A momentum of 2024 is expected to carry forward into 2025. Analysts predict continued growth in deal volumes as companies and investors remain focused on expansion. Technology-driven deals will likely stay at the forefront, with a strong emphasis on AI, machine learning, and other emerging technologies.
Cross-border M&A is expected to increase as companies prioritize supply chain security and global reach, looking for opportunities to expand their presence and access new markets. However, as regulatory scrutiny intensifies, it may increasingly act as a limiting factor. Specifically, in sensitive areas like AI and cross-border transactions, this added oversight could impact both the execution and timelines of deals. Consequently, organizations might need to adapt their strategies to meet evolving requirements, which could further shape their decision-making processes.
About ONEtoONE
ONEtoONE is an international M&A firm with offices in 38 cities across the globe, with experience in over 2000 mandates.
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